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Bugs: Recent Topics Paging, Uploading Images & Preview (11 Dec 2020)

Recent Topics paging, uploading images and preview bugs require a patch which has not yet been released.

× Talk about whatever you like related to games that doesn't fit anywhere else.

The Attrition Rate of Game Sales

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24 Jul 2014 13:54 - 24 Jul 2014 15:10 #182901 by san il defanso
I came across this article on the Starlit Citadel blog...

Apologies if its been posted here before, but I hadn't seen it yet. Essentially, it's some data from the Starlit Citadel online store, where he tracks with how many new titles they stock every year, and what percentage of those titles are kept in stock for a stretch of time. Here's an interesting quote from the article.

Thirdly, the ‘demand’ for products takes a steep fall within 1 year. We drop 50% of products we bring in within 1 year, 60% in 2 years and within 3 75% of all products are dropped. As a publisher, if you haven’t sold off a significant % of your products in a year, you should seriously be considering adjusting your price / having sales because by year 3, you’re not likely to be able to sell it at all.


While I couldn't comment very much on the statistical elements at play here (that's why we have Space Ghost), I am curious as to whether the huge spike in products and the speed with which they fall off is typical for other retailers. Certainly it looks like the number of titles available was already growing plenty before 2011, but there's a definite jump around the time Kickstarter becomes available. Curiously Kickstarter isn't mentioned in the article.

I'm interested in what other people can add here. At first blush I find the numbers a little alarming just because of how quickly stuff turns over, but thinking about it, it doesn't actually seem that surprising. But then I don't have a great head for numbers and interpreting data, so I'd be interested to see how his methodology might have some gaps or some more insight into what these numbers reflect, if anything.
Last edit: 24 Jul 2014 15:10 by san il defanso.

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24 Jul 2014 14:18 #182909 by Michael Barnes
Yep, I saw this back in my store 2004-2008. Sales of games virtually disappear after a year of availability, and then it sits on the shelf. I sold something like 28 copies of World of Warcraft the week it came out. I sold about three more until I shut down. This is why game shops tend to have lots of backstock, games that you see sitting there year in, year out.

This is also why expansions are a big deal, because they can extend the market viability of a product. Memoir '44 still sells because it's kept current with add-on purchases. Descent, Arkham Horror...same thing.

THere are a small number of games that sell constantly regardless of being old. Settlers, Dominion, Ticket to Ride, Axis and Allies, Carcassonne, etc...but in every case, there's something that is keeping those games at top of mind. A video game, cultural reference, nostalgia, etc. But most games literally may as well disappear after a year. The churn is just insane, and I can only imagine that it's worse now.

I remember going to the local distributor and they just had PILES of certain games that had been hot 12 months earlier. Just sitting. THis means stores weren't buying them anymore. Because consumers weren't buying them anymore.

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24 Jul 2014 14:52 - 24 Jul 2014 14:52 #182925 by VonTush
Early on product sells on hype, word of mouth, awareness, marketing...After that initial window stuff sells on reputation, quality, usefulness.

Hype and marketing is easy a quality product is another...See Kickstarter for example.

You also see this in Music, Movies and Book.
Last edit: 24 Jul 2014 14:52 by VonTush.

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24 Jul 2014 15:09 #182928 by mads b.
you've written http// in your link instead of http:// so the link isn't working.
The following user(s) said Thank You: san il defanso

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24 Jul 2014 15:40 #182934 by wadenels
I would expect the curve is similar for video games, movies, and books, which is why you see those in the bargain bin and in "3 Movie Blockbuster Action Bundle!" and "Complete Douglas Adams Works" packaging on the cheap. There are exceptions like Dark Side of the Moon, and Settlers of Catan, but they're the exception and not the rule. The big differences are the high production costs and lack of economies of scale in board games, and that most game publishers and game stores don't slide their pricing to fit the demand curve and instead hold onto it until one final off-loading hurrah like Tanga, clearance sale, or suddenly it's in shrink at a thrift store.

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24 Jul 2014 19:55 #182962 by Shellhead
Blame the Cult of the New.

When I was growing up, there were certain classic family boardgames that seemed to be constantly in print due to steady demand. Monopoly, Sorry, Clue, Risk, Stratego, Battleship, etc.

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25 Jul 2014 08:47 - 25 Jul 2014 08:47 #182980 by wadenels

Shellhead wrote: Blame the Cult of the New.

When I was growing up, there were certain classic family boardgames that seemed to be constantly in print due to steady demand. Monopoly, Sorry, Clue, Risk, Stratego, Battleship, etc.


I still see those games, but they're not as ubiquitous as they used to be. Nowadays most things are licensed and feature characters from video games, movies, or books.

Or they just go full-on product placement / advertisement:
Last edit: 25 Jul 2014 08:47 by wadenels.

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25 Jul 2014 15:29 #183021 by Cranberries
I just looked at the highest rated games for 2013. Are any of those going to stick around for more than a year? I don't even know what Caverna is. Pathfinder card game, maybe?

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25 Jul 2014 16:01 #183034 by charlest

craniac wrote: I just looked at the highest rated games for 2013. Are any of those going to stick around for more than a year? I don't even know what Caverna is. Pathfinder card game, maybe?


All of these have staying power in my opinion:

Love Letter
Hanabi
Pathfinder ACG - This will persist through new sets continually churned out
Coup
Forbidden Desert
Caverna (the Agricola crowd is huge and this is their new darling)
Rampage
Duel of Ages 2
A Study In Emerald
Eldritch Horror
Space Cadets: Dice Duel
The Duke
Kemet
Firefly

It depends how you define staying power though. If you're asking what people here will be talking about/playing next year then no, many of these won't. I'm talking about being played/discussed by the majority of the people in the hobby.

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